Iran and Israel exchanged fire overnight, and Israel has announced it’s preparing for prolonged conflict. The Houthis are already threatening to disrupt Red Sea shipping in response, which means another major global trade artery could be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Trump’s response to all of this was essentially “they better stop it” — and they’re not stopping it.
The hard truth is the U.S. has lost its leverage. Israel isn’t afraid of us. Iran isn’t afraid of us. Whatever happens next is entirely up to them. If they want a full-scale war, there’s nothing Trump can do about it short of sending troops back in — and I don’t think he’s going to do that. My prediction is he lets them fight, declares we tried, and walks away.
That’s probably the best case scenario at this point. The worst case is Netanyahu manipulates him back into the conflict. We’ll be going live on this in a couple of hours — stay tuned.
