I wanted to do something a bit different in yesterday’s Live Stream. I wanted to give you a little hope.
In my opinion, Democrats are going to win the midterms. I’m pretty confident that they are going to easily win the House of Representatives, and I feel certain they’ll take the Senate. I think it’s just a question of how many seats they win.
I’m so optimistic that I think there’s a possibility that Democrats come out of the midterm elections with a filibuster-proof majority — sixty seats. Now, I just think this is a possibility, not a probability.
I know I’m the only one who thinks this. I also want you to understand that this is just my opinion, and I’ve been wrong before. I was sure that Kamala would win the 2024 presidential election.
Why? Why do I think Democrats are in such a great position to win so significantly?
First, Trump really is that bad, and everyone — the entire electorate — knows it. Everyone feels it. Recent polling suggests that no one, ever, has been this bad.
Democratic strategists always say, “We have to give voters something to vote for, not just something to vote against.”
That’s almost always true, except for this time. Trump and the Republicans are so bad that voters don’t actually need anyone better to vote for. I think they will vote, in record numbers, against Trump and the Republicans — or they won’t vote at all.
Add to that, Democrats are actually offering someone better to vote for. There are several remarkable House and Senate candidates. There’s a lot of youth, a lot of energy, and a laser focus on fixing all the things that Trump and the Republicans have broken.
Lastly, I would argue that Democrats have overperformed in nearly every notable election since Trump was inaugurated in January 2025. Republicans have underperformed, sometimes by as much as 30 points. Democrats have won elections in deep-red localities and really haven’t lost an election in a purple area.
Polling is all good and well, but recent election outcomes provide hard data. The metrics suggest that Democrats have the wind at their backs.
There’s no harm in riding the wave right now.
