Bolsonaro Convicted: What Comes Next — Especially From Trump

Brazil convicts Bolsonaro for plotting a coup, and Trump probably sees his own reflection in the verdict.

Today marks a potentially transformational moment for Brazil, its democracy, and the broader struggle against authoritarian populism worldwide. According to Reuters Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election. The charges were striking: joining an armed criminal organization, conspiring to violently abolish democracy, orchestrating a coup, and damaging government property and cultural assets.

It’s the first time in Brazil that a former president has been found guilty of attacking the democratic order. Still, the conviction wasn’t unanimous. One justice dissented, another has yet to cast a vote, but the majority has spoken. The evidence, according to the court, was overwhelming.

Sound familiar?

What Bolsonaro was convicted of looks alarmingly familiar. His supporters, inspired by nonsensical allegations of election fraud, stormed Brazil’s government buildings on January 8, 2023. It was an almost a carbon copy of Trump’s January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol. Both men lost elections and both tried to cling to power. Both whipped their base into a frenzy with abhorrent lies. Then, both watched from the sidelines while their followers ransacked the halls of democracy.

The key difference? In Brazil, the system fought back. The high court didn’t interfere with the adjudication of justice. Accountability landed. In the United States, our village idiot was indicted but avoided trial and a likley conviction.

Bolsonaro is a cautionary tale of what Trump fears most: that the wheels of justice might one day grind their way toward him.

What could this mean for Brazil?

I’m certainly not well versed in Brazilian politics. Just speculating; it could mean that Bolsonaro’s conviction is more than a legal defeat; it may be turning point in Brazil’s political culture. If the conviction stands, it could send a powerful message: no leader, no matter how popular or powerful, is above the law. For Bolsonaro’s far-right movement — a coalition that reshaped Congress and recast national politics in its image — this may be a body blow.

Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is just around the corner. Bolsonaro intends to run but is barred from office (until 2030).

Trump’s reaction: anger with consequences?

Of course, Bolsonaro’s downfall isn’t just a Brazilian story. It’s an American one too — because Donald Trump has already made it so. The village idiot has repeatedly defended Bolsonaro, calling the prosecution a “witch hunt.” He punished Brazil with a 50% tariff, sanctioned the judge presiding over the case, and even revoked visas of members of Brazil’s Supreme Court. It was an extraordinary, if not absurd use of U.S. power to protect a foreign ally — and, let’s not bullshit ourselves, to protect a mirror image of himself.

Higher Tariffs?

I expect that Donald will jack tariffs up again, maybe 75% or 100%. He could impose additional sanctions, targeting more judges or officials involved in the trial. And, perhaps most predictably, he will turn this into another chapter in his personal persecution narrative: “If they can do this to Bolsonaro, they can do it to me. If they can do it to me, they can do it to you!”

That line will likely resonate with the MAGA base. It ties his personal grievances and self victimization to a global story of supposed judicial overreach. He will frame himself part of a brotherhood of persecuted strongmen, unfairly persecuted by the courts.

How far will he go?

Could Trump go completely off the rails — 150%, 400%, or, in a delusional fit of fury, 100,000% tariffs? After all, he temporarily hit China with an almost meaningless 145% tariff. With Donald, the rhetorically absurd is always on the table. But in reality, there probably are limits. He can push tariffs higher, sure, but, as we’ve learned, he can’t detonate U.S. trade policy without massive blowback from markets, allies, and even his own supporters who would feel the sting of higher prices.

The bigger picture

Bolsonaro’s conviction is historic. It shows that in Brazil, at least, a president can’t stage a coup, walk away untouched and be elected President for a second term. Trump sees that, and he hates it — because it reflects his own January 6 crimes right back at him. He will certainly lash out. He will escalate tariffs and sanctions and the US consumer will ultimately pay the price.

UPDATE: Just over 45 minutes ago Reuters reported that Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 23 years and three months in prison. Trump’s response, “a terrible thing," adding, “I think it’s very bad for Brazil.”

Note: I use AI tools to help with drafting and editing. Every piece is reviewed, fact-checked, and rewritten in my own voice before publication.