Donald Trump thinks he’s outsmarting Iran.
He’s not.
In tonight’s live, I argued that the biggest story isn’t the latest round of bombing. It’s that Iran has been systematically manipulating Donald Trump from the very beginning of this conflict—and he keeps walking right into it.
Trump sold this war as a way to stop Iran from becoming stronger and to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Instead, I believe he’s accomplished the exact opposite. Iran has emerged with greater strategic leverage, more influence in the Middle East, new economic opportunities, and perhaps the strongest political justification it’s ever had to pursue a nuclear deterrent. If your objective was to weaken Iran, this has been a spectacular failure.
But this goes beyond Iran.
I argued that the real problem is Donald Trump himself. Here is a man who, in my view, is emotionally unstable, intellectually out of his depth, increasingly detached from reality, and making decisions that could reshape the world. While he’s lashing out at NATO allies, confusing world leaders, and surrounding himself with people who have little business running American foreign policy, our adversaries are doing something much more effective: they’re studying him. They’re learning his weaknesses. And they’re exploiting them.
That led to what I think was the larger lesson of the evening. Iran isn’t the first country to figure Trump out. China did it during the trade war. Canada did it. Increasingly, other democracies are learning it too. The mistake many leaders make is believing they have to flatter Trump. I argued the opposite: he’s a classic bully who retreats when people stand up to him. Iran, perversely, has demonstrated that better than almost anyone.
That’s what makes this moment so dangerous. The bombs aren’t the biggest story. The biggest story is that the President of the United States believes he’s playing three-dimensional chess while, in my view, America’s adversaries are several moves ahead of him.
