That being said, it won’t be boring.

If nothing else, I hope it makes you feel a little bit better about the midterm elections.

Let’s look at the metrics and let’s take a leap of faith. Let’s trust that Democrats are going to win these midterms.

Kansas Republican Ty Masterson said that his opponent’s daughter was practicing demonic spells on TikTok to help her mom Cindy Holscher win the election for Governor.

Looks like we’ve regressed backward. The Year of Our Lord in Kansas right now is 1692 and the Salem Witch Trials have been replaced with the Topeka Demon Tribunal.

I still can’t believe that I’m actually typing this.

I remember the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach on election night 2024. Trump won another term, and America was doomed. It was an awful feeling.

I don’t want to go through that again, and I know that you don’t.

To protect ourselves as the midterms approach, we try to irrationalize data points. “The polls are wrong.” “Kamala lost, and it’s going to happen again.” “Republicans always come home and vote for Trump.”

In this video, I want to share some hopecore.

The universe would have to flip over on its side for Democrats to lose the House and, unless things go perfectly for Republicans, they will lose the Senate.

It’s not 2024. The math has changed. The Democrats have good candidates, and Trump really is that bad this time.

The oil chokehold caused by Trump’s war in Iran is the match that lit the fuse that’s about to blow up the entire global economy.

We could potentially see our core inflation rate double what it was when Biden left office.

It doesn’t have to be this way, and we’re not helpless to change it.

She can’t read very well, at least in front of an audience.

She also can’t seem to answer questions.

To be fair, I don’t really know that for sure. She only stuck around for six of them, and they were all softball questions from right-wing media personalities.

Why do I care? Why do I think you should care?

Everyone in the Trump administration is unfit, incompetent, and unqualified. We can’t afford to normalize that anymore.

We must care because these cosplaying fools are already getting us into deep trouble.

When the shit finally hits the fan, they will not be capable of getting us out of it.

His opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, took advantage of Talarico’s absence and pushed a bizarre conspiracy narrative. He and his supporters on X claimed that Talarico had a breakdown and had checked into a mental health facility in Ohio.

Conveniently, the ridiculous story also got people to stop talking about Paxton’s unwillingness to participate in a debate.

Donald Trump stepped in to help the Texas Republican.

Then, things went terribly wrong.

If you’re wondering what’s going on over at X today, the MAGA community thinks that they finally have something that will help Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton not lose this election. All over X, MAGA influencers are talking about the fact that James Talarico has been out with the flu for 13 days. They have decided that he actually had a mental breakdown and that he’s currently in a mental institution. And whether they believe it or not, they are broadcasting that message far and wide. I can’t imagine how that message is going to shift when Talarico comes back to the campaign trail this weekend, but I’ll keep you posted.

Update: Talarico appeared back on the campaign trail Friday afternoon. The MAGA faithful on X are doubling down on the mental breakdown narrative.

2. The two Senate debates

Yesterday, Republicans got crushed in two Senate campaign debates. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, went up against Republican Mike Collins, and in Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, went up against Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.

Basically, in the Ossoff debate, Collins presented himself as an idiot. Ossoff, on the other hand, is a clear-minded, hyper-focused, extremely prepared, aggressive debater. It wasn’t even competitive. The best I can say for Collins is that his son-in-law came off as a bigger bigot than he did.

In the other debate, Mike Rogers fared much better than Collins. Although I wouldn’t say he did well, I think he assumed that El-Sayed, since he’s a Muslim man, was a lesser person and was unable to effectively debate him onstage. This was proven by the fact that although Mike Rogers is a seasoned politician and a good debater, he just kept going back to words that were reflective of his Islamophobic, racist perspective. He kept saying over and over again, Abdul. He kept saying the word—he kept saying Egypt. He kept saying United Arab Emirates. He kept saying Muslim Brotherhood over and over and over and over again. And it really looked like he overshadowed everything else he tried to do because he just looked like a conspiracy theorist, racist weirdo.

El-Sayed, on the other hand, turned out to be a really good debater, a seasoned guy who knows a lot of stuff about a lot of things, and he had a very basic strategy. His strategy was simple. He said in the beginning that Mike Rogers was going to make this debate about him and El-Sayed, and not you, you being the voters. He said it right in the beginning. He literally gave his opponent his entire campaign strategy, and literally that is what Mike Rogers did over and over and over again.

I’ll be posting a more in-depth, and opinionated video about the debate in the next day or two.

3. Trump, Russia, and diesel

Yesterday, Crazy Pants eased sanctions on Russia to allow them to sell diesel to the world. The amount that they’ll be selling, if they’re even able to do that, would not even be a drop in the bucket. It’ll make no difference.

Do you remember not too long ago when the idiot in the White House sanctioned India for importing Russian oil? For months and months, he put a 50% tariff on all goods coming in from India. That same idiot, because he’s desperate and panicked with the midterms, is going to buy oil from Russia?

4. Pete Hegseth and public executions

Yesterday, drunken Pete Hegseth announced that the US is now engaged in the medieval practice of public executions. That lunatic is now going to livestream shootings. There’s so much more to say about this, but it’s so abhorrently stupid. Appalling, little-dick-energy stuff, but I really don’t want to give it any more attention than mentioning it.

Thankfully, the Iranians are the adults in the room and they have no desire to attempt to take the mad king up on his offer.

Also, this campaign rally was in Nebraska. Nebraska! If a Republican president has to go to Nebraska to campaign, less than a month before the midterm elections, you know that the party is in deep trouble.

Also, Trump is severely mentally ill and isn’t doing Republican candidates any favors.

For the last few weeks he’s been blaming the high price of diesel gas at home on the war in Ukraine. He’s arguing that his Iran war is not to blame.

Of course the entire global oil crisis is a direct result of Trump’s ineptitudes and his blunders in Iran.

News today that US citizens in Saudi Arabia need to watch out for drone strikes is validation of that reality.

His last-minute, midterm campaign push is much more about his fragile ego than it is saving his legislative advantages.

On the other hand, the lunatics in his cabinet are desperate. They know that their jobs will become exponentially more difficult when Democrats take control of Congress.

Schmitt was either too dumb to make the effort to validate the messages, or he’s so corrupt that he knew they were misleading.

Regardless, there’s a more disturbing narrative that plays out in this story. Trump’s corrupted Department of Justice gave Schmitt, or the Republican Judiciary leadership, access to the text messages.

The DOJ is actively colluding with Senate Republicans to manufacture a crime to pin on Jack Smith.

This isn’t the first time they’ve dragged Smith before the Senate Judiciary Committee, asked him ridiculous questions and sincerely hoped to catch him in some sort of lie.

Whenever they do this, it doesn’t go well.

Yesterday, it really didn’t go well.

Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt was certain that he finally had the goods on Jack Smith.

The problem? Schmitt’s staff researchers are comically incompetent. They mismatched some information in a text message involving Smith and his staff.

Moments after Schmitt presented the information at the hearing, the gotcha smirk on his face quickly changed to a deer-in-the-headlights, egg-on-his-face grimace.

One after another, Republican Senators tripped over each trying to convince themselves that Smith committed crimes while investigating Donald Trump.

There is something about the way Iran is dealing with Donald Trump that I find validating. It’s something that I’ve been preaching about since Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

It’s not complicated. It may just be the simplest strategy imaginable.

Trump has spent the last few weeks threatening Iran. He’s been making demands and then changing those demands. While begging for a deal, he talks about annihilating the Iranian nation and then tells everyone that the Iranians are somehow responsible for the fact that there isn’t a deal.

But the Iranians ignore all the noise and they keep coming back to the same thing:

You already agreed to a deal, and it’s the only deal you’re EVER going to get.

For months and months, I’ve been arguing that reporters should just keep asking Donald Trump the same question over and over and over again.

The Iranians have proven that this simple strategy will always break Trump. A few days ago they made it even simpler.

After Trump threatened to make a deal with them and to annihilate them at the United Nations General Assembly, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States meets its conditions and returns to negotiations. Iranian officials have said the proposal is based largely on commitments resembling the memorandum of understanding reached in June.

Trump’s response?

He rejected it.

On Saturday, he told reporters, “I reject their proposal.”

And that brings us back to the thing I find most validating about all of this.

Iran isn’t interested in chasing Trump around.

Trump says something new? Iran has the same answer.

Trump threatens Iran? Same answer.

Trump demands a deal? Same answer.

You already agreed to a deal. It’s the only deal that you’re EVER going to get.

Open the Strait. Go back to the agreement. Start talking.

That’s it.

And Trump has now rejected the off-ramp that was sitting right in front of him.

There is an obvious political dimension to this. Iran’s proposal was explicitly presented in the context of the November midterm elections, when high fuel prices and the continuing war are already creating political pressure for the Trump administration.

Accepting the proposal would at least have given Trump a way to say: The war is ending. The Strait is reopening. Oil prices can come down. We got a deal.

That wouldn’t have materially changed the inevitable outcome of the midterm elections but may have limited some of the GOP hemorrhaging.

At the very least, it would have given Trump’s ass kissing Republicans running for Congress something very different to talk about.

Instead, Trump rejected it.

And that is why I keep coming back to the same conclusion about the Iranian strategy.

It’s not 4D chess. It’s much simpler than that.

Iran found something that works, and it is refusing to change the subject.

It’s a little like dealing with the craziest person in your family who cannot be reasoned with, whose thought process defies common sense and who’s always looking for a new argument. At some point, you stop arguing about every new thing they say.

You just say:

No. This is my position and it’s never going to change.

And you don’t move. You just repeat the same thing every time there’s a disagreement.

That’s what makes the Iranian strategy so interesting.

Trump keeps changing the conversation.

Iran keeps bringing it back to the same sentence.

You want the Strait open? Honor the agreement.

That’s all you have to do.

Just keep it simple and sooner or later, Trump will get board. He will go away and he find someone else to bother.

We’re already seeing that with reports that the Trump administration to preparing to potentially attack Cuba.

Trump also said that he has a big decision to make, that he’s going to decide if he’s going to make a deal with Iran or if he might prefer to obliterate the nation.

He proudly proclaimed that, thanks to him, America was the hottest country in the world. He then paused and waited for applause that never happened.

That about sums up the lunacy. Check out this recording of the event with my commentary.

In my opinion, Democrats are going to win the midterms. I’m pretty confident that they are going to easily win the House of Representatives, and I feel certain they’ll take the Senate. I think it’s just a question of how many seats they win.

I’m so optimistic that I think there’s a possibility that Democrats come out of the midterm elections with a filibuster-proof majority — sixty seats. Now, I just think this is a possibility, not a probability.

I know I’m the only one who thinks this. I also want you to understand that this is just my opinion, and I’ve been wrong before. I was sure that Kamala would win the 2024 presidential election.

Why? Why do I think Democrats are in such a great position to win so significantly?

First, Trump really is that bad, and everyone — the entire electorate — knows it. Everyone feels it. Recent polling suggests that no one, ever, has been this bad.

Democratic strategists always say, “We have to give voters something to vote for, not just something to vote against.”

That’s almost always true, except for this time. Trump and the Republicans are so bad that voters don’t actually need anyone better to vote for. I think they will vote, in record numbers, against Trump and the Republicans — or they won’t vote at all.

Add to that, Democrats are actually offering someone better to vote for. There are several remarkable House and Senate candidates. There’s a lot of youth, a lot of energy, and a laser focus on fixing all the things that Trump and the Republicans have broken.

Lastly, I would argue that Democrats have overperformed in nearly every notable election since Trump was inaugurated in January 2025. Republicans have underperformed, sometimes by as much as 30 points. Democrats have won elections in deep-red localities and really haven’t lost an election in a purple area.

Polling is all good and well, but recent election outcomes provide hard data. The metrics suggest that Democrats have the wind at their backs.

There’s no harm in riding the wave right now.

The President threatened to fire the Fed Chair and ordered him to resign. The Fed Chair knew that President couldn’t fire him and chose not to resign.

The President said mean things about the Fed Chair and called him lots of names. The Fed Chair ignored the President.

Eventually, the Fed Chair’s four year term in office ended and he left his position with honor and dignity. The President nominated a new Fed Chair, a guy who was supposed do exactly what the President wanted him to do.

Not only did the new Fed Chair NOT do what the President wanted, he actually raised interest rates.

The President is really mad.

In a 7-2 decision, the Supreme Court blocked Trump’s effort to impose new restrictions on mail-in voting ahead of the midterm elections. The ruling leaves the existing mail-voting procedures in place for the November elections.

Donald reacted exactly as you would expect. He posted a lengthy tirade on Truth Social, calling mail-in voting totally “corrupt” and a “disaster.” He said the ruling makes it easier for “Dumocrats” to cheat and accused certain Supreme Court justices of being “petrified” of Democrats.

But there was something else going on in Trump’s reaction.

In addition to expressing his rage, he used the opportunity to blame the Democrats—and now the Supreme Court—for what he is already portraying as future failures.

Trump wrote, “The damage done to America is incalculable, and they know this, just as everyone else does - It is an irreparable and unrecoverable harm!”

That’s worth paying attention to.

Because Trump isn’t just complaining about a Supreme Court decision. He is also beginning to construct the narrative for what happens if things go badly for him: the Democrats are to blame. The Supreme Court is to blame. And, presumably, anyone else who gets in his way can be added to the list.

That was the main thing I wanted to talk about in today’s live. I also discussed the war in Iran, the economy and what tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision could mean.

Of course, this is happening in large part because Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and has mostly stopped oil tankers from transiting the waterway. The disruption there, combined with other supply problems, has contributed to the global fuel shortage.

Cue the liars.

Donald Trump, his ignorant Energy Secretary, and sycophantic babblers on Fox News are blaming it all on Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians.

That’s right. Apparently, the entire global shortage is mostly the result of Ukraine striking back against Russian infrastructure and, on occasion, targeting oil production facilities.

But there’s one unexpected messaging problem.

Right-wing influencers on X are not propagating the narrative.

I’ve never seen this before.

Usually, when Trump lies about—well, anything—they immediately magnify the message.

That’s not happening this time.

At least not yet.

Why?